Demographic Dynamics and Economic Take-Off -- the Economic Impact of China’s Population-Control Policies
نویسنده
چکیده
What is the impact of China’s population-control policies on its economic growth? This paper has developed and tested a simple theory of demographic dynamics and economic take-off. It is shown in this paper that the standard econometric estimation conceals the “take-off effect” and therefore underestimates the economic impact of demographic changes. We have shown that the economic impact of China’s populationcontrol policies is that they have moved the timing of the economic take-off in China forward by a decade. Without these policies, for example, China’s real GDP per capita would have been just around US$520 in 1995. The actual real GDP per capita in 1995 is US$658, 26.5% higher. -------------------------------------------------*Department of Economics, Carleton University; External Research Fellow of the Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy (GEP) at University of Nottingham. I wish to thank Ba Chu, Charles Horioka, Hashmat Khan, Marcel Voia, seminar participants at Kobe and Osaka Universities for helpful comments. Thanks are also extended to Xue Zhao for excellent research assistances for this project. Financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada is also gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence: Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ont. K1S 5B6, Canada; Tel: 1-613-520-2600 ext. 3763; Fax: 1-613-520-3906; Email: [email protected]; Home Page: www.carleton.ca/~zyu
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